Equity Research Lab

Independent research, clearly classified#

Kyle Wisniewski runs the Equity Research Lab as independent research on the companies building frontier intelligence and the companies being built on it: the well known and the emerging. It is personal research and education. It is not an employer, an asset manager, an investment track record, a financial-institution affiliation, or a source of investment advice, and it publishes no price targets, ratings, or positions.

The lab replaced the Quantitative Markets & Institutions Lab in September 2026. The earlier lab's mathematics survives only as instruments, re-explained for the analysis of companies; its findings, regime atlas, and research log were retired, and every one of its addresses redirects to the matching page of the new lab.

What a dossier is#

A dossier is an investment memo whose numbers come from an offline pipeline and whose judgments are written by hand, kept apart, and labelled. The memo carries the situation, the thesis, where consensus comes from and where this view differs, the key drivers, the disconfirming evidence, what would change the view, and what is being monitored. The artifact carries the figures: what the price implies under a stated cost of capital, what the author's scenarios would pay and how the payoff is distributed, the factor exposure with the intervals a short history deserves, the drawdown and value-at-risk record, the expected move, the relative valuation against a versioned peer set, and the capital-cycle ratios from the filings.

The method page states the evidence standard; the instruments explain each piece of mathematics with a demo on illustrative inputs; the research ledger records every dated thesis change and coverage entry.

How the numbers are produced#

The pipeline runs on the author's machine. It reads public filings from SEC EDGAR, the daily factor files from the Kenneth R. French Data Library, rates and exchange rates from FRED, and daily prices downloaded for personal use. It writes one artifact per company with a manifest of its inputs, each pinned by SHA-256, coverage, and vintage, and the commit of the code that ran. The site validates every artifact against a published schema before it builds, renders the figures between the memo's sections, and shows the provenance a reader needs to reproduce them. Raw prices, factor files, and option chains never leave the pipeline machine.

Coverage#

Coverage follows the thesis, not a portfolio. A company enters the ledger as a watchlist row, moves to in progress when its memo is being written, and is published when its artifact exists. Rows that are not published carry no numbers, and the homepage's count of the lab's coverage is derived from the same table.

Assumptions and limitations#

Scenario probabilities, discount rates, terminal assumptions, and peer sets are the author's stated judgments, recorded as inputs wherever they appear. A reverse DCF says what a price requires, not whether the requirement will be met. A short listing history widens every interval and can make a rolling backtest impossible, in which case the artifact says so rather than shrinking the window. Filed figures follow the latest filed value, which is right for a valuation today and wrong for a point-in-time study. None of the mathematics is a forecast; together it bounds what a reasonable person could believe at the price.